Theory 1: Ad-Supported Music
Yahoo! Music General Manager Ian Rogers says all music will be free - paid for by ads - and any song by any artist will be accessible from anywhere in the world.
Theory 2: Peer-to-Peer Goes Legit
Eric Garland, CEO of digital-music research firm Big Champagne, says people will pay a monthly surcharge on their cable bill to download an unlimited supply of tunes.
Theory 3: Endless Access Points for Music
David Pakman, President and CEO of the indie-minded download site eMusic, says the more outlets there are to buy music, the fewer people will turn to piracy.
Theory 4: Labels Change Their Stripes
Rob Glaser, the head of Real Networks and Rhapsody, predicts that labels will operate more as managers, earning most of their profits from licensing, touring, and merchandise.
Theory 5: Consumers Become Retailers
Terry McBride, founder and CEO of Nettwerk Music Group, says social networking will be integrated with commerce.
Ich favorisiere nach wie vor Theorie 2, die faktisch eine Kulturflatrate darstellt:
Tens of billions of songs are downloaded for free by people all over the world, representing a huge market - not in changing their behavior, but in creating businesses around that fact. People that provide access to networks are the logical place for payments to be administered: Today you pay your cable company, not only for bits and bites, but for services like HBO or a tier of basic cable. It's in everyone's interest to administer payment there, with royalty payments made from pools of money collected based on stat rates or voluntary rates. You'll have Time Warners and Comcasts and Verizons working with content companies to convert these marketplaces without trying to change customer behavior.
Exakt so ist es. Das Nutzerverhalten wird man nicht ändern können, egal wie oft man die Piraten verklagt. P2P geht nicht mehr weg, also monetarisiert es. Es ist die einzige Chance für die Musikindustrie, einigermaßen heil im Internetz anzukommen.